During a webinar earlier this week looking at the latest trends and outlook for the multipurpose shipping market, covering both breakbulk and project cargo sectors, Drewry repeated its optimistic forecast for the sector, predicting further rec
Susan Oatway, Drewry's lead analyst for the multipurpose sector, said this optimism was based on rising demand trends, contracting vessel supply and lessening threats from competing sectors.
Oatway says: "The fundamentals are there (growing demand, contracting supply). The fly in the ointment is always the competing sectors but here too things are looking better. So there is definitely scope to get this market off rock bottom."
She added that whilst demolition levels are still historically low, the multipurpose fleet is contracting as older, smaller, less heavy lift-capable tonnage, which has an average age of over 21 years, is scrapped, adding that new IMO rules on emissions and ballast water will encourage this trend.
However, whilst Drewry sees overall vessel supply moving closer toward balance, the true picture actually has a vast number of simple older vessels weighing the supply side down. "So we have some way to go before we are free of this overtonnage situation," says Oatway.
Asked whether shippers of commodity cargoes that have made a long-term switch from breakbulk to containers will ever return to multipurpose ships, Oatway predicted that where investment has been made on port infrastructure and the logistics chain, there will be no switch back.
"When we talk about the multipurpose market share (of the drybulk cargo market) we do not see it increasing back to pre-2007 levels. Multipurpose volumes only really increase when overall volumes rise."
Speaking about rates, Oatway says that Drewry believes a steady growth of around 2-3 percent per year is possible over the forecast period, with demand growth expected to improve by 0.5 to 1.0 percent over the same period.
If you would like any more information on the material presented on Drewry's new Multipurpose Shipping Annual Review and Forecast 2018-19 report visit this website:
https://www.drewry.co.uk/maritime-research-products/multipurpose-shipping-annual-review-and-forecast-2018-19?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=MPV%20webinar 0.000000ollow 0p%20April%2018
