According to analysis from maritime research and consulting firm Drewry, project cargo activity will keep multipurpose shipping rates buoyant in 2025, despite the potential impact of geopolitical challenges and trade tariffs.
Drewry’s Breakbulk Sea Transport indices for both general cargo and project cargo are both projected to improve this year, although the prospects are stronger in the latter index.
The analyst said that utilisation of project cargo vessels will increase this year amid “strong demand”, much which will come from intra-Asia moves relating to energy projects. Other robust sectors include the Middle East, Africa and Europe.
At the same time, “a tight supply of project cargo [vessel capacity] will persist due to a low orderbook, resulting in higher charter rates. Furthermore, if delays in deliveries increase in 2025, we may see rates surging next year for project cargo.”
In contrast, the picture for general cargo vessels is a little more complicated.
“The overall performance of the container and dry bulk markets will significantly affect general cargo vessel utilisation,” Drewry said. “As dry bulk freight costs are also poised to increase, the general cargo index will also increase. At the same time, an oversupply situation in containers could increase competition and absorb any improvements from the dry cargo market.”
Drewry expects to see the two charter markets diverge, with general cargo rates this year projected to rise between 1 percent and 7 percent depending on vessel size, while project carrier charter rates are expected to rise by 10 to 20 percent.
Overall, with the global multipurpose fleet growing more slowly than anticipated, tonnage could be tight until 2026. Drewry said deliveries are “likely to be muted over the next two years”, and the uptrend in project cargo rates particularly is “likely to persist in 2025 due to limited vessel supply and high demand”.
It is worth noting too that rates feed back into the likelihood of fleet demolition and renewal: many owners are keeping ageing general cargo vessels active as long as they remain profitable.
