March/April 2025 digital edition

It is challenging to gauge sentiment in the heavy lift and project logistics market presently. The forecasting horizon has rarely felt so constrained. Still, volatility is nothing new and the sector has long demonstrated its resilience and adaptability: those traits look set to be tested again in the years ahead.

One of the key forces creating uncertainty is US trade policy, where a renewed protectionist agenda is already disrupting global supply chains. US president Donald Trump has redoubled efforts to redress trade imbalances. Amid this turbulence, it can be hard to see the wood for the trees. Mr Trump, ever the dealmaker, is likely to negotiate down on the most disruptive trade policies and tariffs. Despite the rhetoric, tariffs and trade barriers drive up costs for consumers, and the Federal Reserve has already signalled that inflationary concerns may leave little room for interest rate cuts should Mr Trump proceed as planned.

Still, echoes of his first term are unmistakable: China is in the firing line, although this time even traditional allies are being treated with renewed suspicion.

At the geopolitical level, the unilateral bodies that once held sway now appear toothless. Instead, the global narrative is being shaped by a trio of strongman leaders – Russia’s Vladimir Putin, China’s Xi Jinping and Mr Trump – each pursuing their own agendas on territorial disputes, market access and trade deficits. The hope remains that Russia’s economy has been sufficiently destabilised to bring about a compromise on Ukraine that avoids irreparable damage. Europe, too, has a role to play, but real influence will require a collective toughening up.

The knock-on effects on major capital projects, and the subsequent project logistics opportunities on offer, will take some time to manifest. While cautious, most of those spoken with over the past couple of months remain bullish – particularly those with diversified activities across multiple markets/verticals.

Meanwhile, it has been five years since the introduction of the IMO 2020 regulations, which required shipping lines to cut sulphur oxide emissions by nearly 80 percent. The transition was relatively smooth, the IMO championing the start of a new era of cleaner air.

However, recent research cited by The Telegraph, led by climate scientist Prof. James Hansen, suggests that the unintended consequences may be severe. Before the regulations, more than 10 million tonnes of sulphur oxide was emitted annually. Hansen said this contributed to the phenomenon known as ‘global dimming,’ which reflected sunlight away from the Earth. Hansen’s findings suggest that reducing these emissions has led to a planetary warming effect of up to 0.5 watts per sq m – the equivalent of a decade’s worth of carbon emissions at today’s levels. It seems we are damned if we do and damned if we don’t.

David Kershaw,

Editor